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UNP Hopes to Repeat History and UPFA to Create History

The UNP, that polled 69% of the vote and claimed as many as 17 out of the 24 seats in the last municipal election in March 2002, believes that it has a distinct edge over its main rival UPFA in this months KMC election.

Kesera Senanayaka

L B Aluvihare

Sena Dissanayake

Tilina Thennakoon

However, the UPFA is equally hopeful that it will be able to close the gap with the help of the electoral clout of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and create history by forming the first ever non-UNP Kandy municipal administration.

On March 30th there will be almost 70,000 voters (2004 register) eligible to elect 24 members to the KMC. At the last election in 2002 March about 65.500 were eligible to vote. The increase between the two elections is 4,500 (7%). Very roughly about 10,000 of these voters are likely to be either first time voters or newcomers to Kandy who are voting in town for the first time. That means about 85% of the voters that the candidates have to persuade are “veterans” who have been around at least during the last municipal election.

A total of 240 candidates are contesting for the 24 seats. UNP, UPFA, JVP, JHU and the National Development Front are the registered political parties contesting. There are also three independent lists. Of the three two claim to represent Muslims (about 16% of the electorate) and the third the business community. Each list of nominations has 30 names. But a political party can disregard the list and appoint an outsider to fill a seat that the party has won. President Premadasa did that in the early 1990s when he appointed D E Pathirana as mayor. In the 2002 election the JVP also did the same by appointing Anura Gonawela who was not a candidate. Mr. Gonawela is the leader of the JVP group in this election.

The ethnic composition of Kandy is about 75% Sinhalese, 16% Muslim and 9% Tamil. Sinhalese account for 173 (72%) of the candidates. Muslims make up 52 (22%) and Tamils 15 (6%). UNP has four Muslim candidates and three Tamil candidates and the UPFA four Muslims and two Tamils.

There are a sprinkling of lawyers, a few journalists and other professional among the candidates. The vast majority of the candidates describe themselves as “businessmen.”
The UNP and UPFA have not designated mayoral candidates. The JHU has two Buddhist monks one of whom Rev. Dodamwela Dharmarathana is the leader. Mr. Maurice Rathnayaka heads the National Development Front.

The law requires that 40% of the candidates be between the ages of 18 and 35 to represent the youth. But there is no such requirement for female representation. Only 34 (14%) of the candidates are female. The two major parties that have the best chance of getting candidates elected have very few female candidates. The UNP has one candidate R S Lakshmi and the UPFA has one candidate Geethanjalee Samarasinghe.

In 2002 only about 42,500 (65%) valid votes were cast at the KMC election. This year if the rate of poll remains the same we can expect about 46,000 to cast valid votes.

In theory if voters do not mark a preference for individual candidates and simply vote only for the party it is possible to be elected with a very small number of preferences. In 2002 the JVP did exactly that and wanted its supporters to vote only for the party. But there is a fierce intra-party battle for preference votes among the UNP and UFPA candidates. To have a reasonable chance of getting elected a UNP or UPFA candidate needs at least 2,000 preference votes or about 4.3% of the total votes cast. But this is the minimum. To be comfortable a candidate must aim for at least 2,500 (5.4%) Thus much of the personal canvassing will be aimed at reaching this target.

On the face of it 2,000 to 2,500 votes appears to be an easy target. But in reality it is not. It depends on the UNP and UPFA party vote and how one fairs within the party. In theory a strong performance by one's own party improves one's chances. In 2002 the UNP polled a little over 29,000 (69%) of the total poll and secured 17 (71%) of the seats including the two bonus seats one for winning the election and one for mayor. The UPFA polled about 10,500 (24%) and won 5 (21%) of the seats. The JVP with about 1,400 (3%) and an Independent Group with about 1,000 (2%) secured one seat each.

Outgoing mayor Kesera Senanayaka leads the UNP slate. If his party wins he is staking a strong claim to return as mayor. Senanayaka is pinning his hopes mainly on what he calls his professional experience as a diplomat and his track record as the outgoing mayor. The outgoing deputy mayor L B Aluvihare is openly challenging him for the top job. In 2002 Aluvihare came first in the poll securing nearly 8,000 votes. About 27% of the voters who supported the UNP had given a preference for him. Mayor Senanayaka came a close second with about 1,000 votes behind Aluvihare. Last time Aluvihare canvassed for the mayor's job on the grounds that he won the most number of preference votes but the UNP leadership chose Senanayaka. Aluvihare hopes that this time the party leadership would recognize his seniority and his appeal to the voter.

Kandy lawyer M P Jayasinghe heads the UPFA list. Like the UNP the UPFA also has not declared its mayoral candidate. From the latter also there are two rivals for the mayor's job in case the party wins. The long standing UPFA council member and Leader of the Opposition Sena Dissanayake is one. The other is Tilina Bandara Thennakoon who is new to the KMC but has experience as a parliamentarian, provincial councilor and the Gangawata Korale Pradesheeya Sabha Chairman. Dissanayake who is a protégé of senior SLFPer Anuruddha Ratwatte believes that he should be given the leadership on account of his seniority in the KMC. Tennakoon stakes his claims on the basis of political experience.

But to become the mayor one's party has to first win the election. The UNP considers Kandy to be its pocket borough. The party has never lost control of the municipal council even at times when the country swung sharply towards the SLFP and its allies. Mr. Tennakoon is appealing to the voters that the UPFA should be elected to bring the benefits of “Mahinda Chinthana” to Kandy. But the numbers suggest that he faces an uphill task.

The voters that The Kandy News interviewed say, not surprisingly, that they want a clean and efficient municipal administration. The UNP can be judged on its track record. The UPFA spokespersons are criticising the UNP rule in Kandy and promising better things if they are elected. What we do not know for sure is how important local issues are as against national issues and traditional party loyalties when electors make their choice of party and candidates.

Even Chandrika Kumaratunga's resounding triumph in the presidential election of 1994 did not produce a sufficient swing in Kandy to deliver the KMC to the PA in the local election that followed the presidential election. This time the challenge is far more daunting. Mahinda Rajapaksa won the presidency by a relatively slim margin over Ranil Wickremasinghe. The JVP which backed Rajapaksa for the presidency is contesting the local election on its own. In contrast the SLMC that has a strong appeal to the Muslim vote that is important in Kandy is with the UNP. In any event in the last November presidential election UNP won Kandy 17,000 (63%) to 9,500 (35%) and Senkadagala 29,000 (55%) 22,500 (44%).

Most important, in the 2002 KMC election the UNP polled 69% of the vote against a combined 31% for the opposition consisting of PA (24%), JVP (3%) and others (4%). In actual votes what this means is that the UNP can expect to poll this time about 32,000 votes if they do as well as in 2002. For the UNP to lose its majority there will have to be swing of over 19 percentage points against it. To lose they will have to drop from 32,000 votes to around 22,000. Conversely the UPFA contesting on its own will have to more than double its 2002 PA vote from about 10,000 to over 22,000.

The Kandy UNP leadership is of the view that even if there is a small swing towards the UPFA on account of the Mahinda factor it would be nowhere near the 19 percentage point mark. The UPFA of course hopes that Mahinda Rajapaksa would be able to exert his presidential aura and wrest control of Kandy away from the UNP for the first time in the city's municipal government history.

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Minister Siripala de Silva's Credibility in Doubt
Says SLFP Provincial Councilor

Central Provincial Councilor Anura Fernando (SLFP) has expressed strong opposition to Health Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva for ordering the takeover of the Nuwara Eliya Hospital from the Provincial Council by the Health Ministry in Colombo. Mr de Silva claimed that the takeover was necessary to develop and upgrade the hospital.

Mr. Fernando speaking at the last monthly meeting of the Provincial Council said that even the credibility of Mr. de Silva as the leader of the government delegation for the peace talks needs to be questioned on account of his action concerning the hospital. If he sincerely believes in power sharing the hospital takeover would not have happened. The minister could have given funds to the Provincial Council to upgrade the hospital he noted. His action, instead, has seriously undermined the viability of provincial governance, Mr. Fernando said.

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